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Unlike public companies, private startup valuations don鈥檛 fluctuate massively from day to day based on current events.

Eventually, however, private company prices do adjust to reflect trends in the broader markets.

And based on what we鈥檙e seeing today, things look worrisome.

The Composite Index was down a staggering 4.8% in midday trading today, following 鈥檚 decision to impose sweeping tariffs on imported goods. His order calls for a 10% baseline tariff, along with much higher rates for many countries.

Among its myriad impacts, the decision is expected to lead to higher consumer prices and depressed demand as manufacturers and retailers pass along tariff costs incurred by their businesses. That was reflected in some of today鈥檚 more pronounced drops聽1 for tech and consumer bellwethers, including (down 7%), (down 8%),聽 (down 10%), and (down 25%).

Startup correction delayed?

Now, over in startupland, we鈥檙e not seeing immediate revaluations. For hot startups, repricings might happen once every few months or quarters when there鈥檚 a new funding round. And ordinarily, it鈥檚 common for companies to go a couple years between revaluations.

That means the $300 billion post-money valuation announced for this week, and the set for the newly combined and aren鈥檛 seeing an instant price cut like leading AI chip supplier (down 5%).

But looking ahead, the trajectory appears concerning.

For one, it鈥檚 only a couple years since the last massive startup valuation correction. Scores of companies that enjoyed unicorn status around the market peak in late 2021 later settled for down rounds, folded or filed for bankruptcy.

In addition, the tech IPO market was sluggish in 2023 and 2024, and only just recently shows signs of warming up. We had a mega-offering last week from , which had a recent market cap around $24 billion. Large offerings from and are also expected to hit markets in coming weeks.

In a similar vein, M&A was also on the rise, led by 鈥檚 planned $32 billion purchase of cybersecurity unicorn , and a bump in billion-dollar-plus acquisitions.

So, for startup exits, we were finally getting out of a slump, only to face a new obstacle in the form of a tariff-driven market pullback.

Dumb + unpopular = a case for optimism

Looking for a case for optimism in the current scenario, I find myself turning to reality TV. The principle of this media niche has long been that one can succeed with something dumb, so long as it鈥檚 popular. However, if a show is both pointlessly stupid and not fun to watch, it will flop.

The same notion applies to a lot of other areas, including movies, music, romance novels, podcasts, and the list goes on. So why not new tariffs?

As public markets have demonstrated today, investors find the current tariff moves both dumb and unpopular. Hopefully, those with power to revise foolish decisions will take this as a reason to reverse course. I鈥檓 not giving it the highest likelihood, but it鈥檚 at least within the realm of possibility.

Related reading:

• With Google鈥檚 $32B Bid For Wiz, Big Exits Are Finally Picking Up
• A Booming Start To The Year For The Billion-Dollar Exits Board

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