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It鈥檚 easy to read a startup business plan and root for its success.

鈥� the company that made its name marketing low-priced tiny homes that ship flat and quickly unfold 鈥� is a prime example.

Founded in 2017 by father and son and , the North Las Vegas company attracted huge publicity with the introduction of its first modular home, the Casita. This roughly 360-square-foot structure, equipped with a kitchen and bathroom, and initially advertised for $50,000, attracted a within a couple years.

It did not result in scores of customers going on to own casitas. However, plenty of fans did invest in the company, thanks to a series of heavily marketed crowdfunding campaigns. To date, Boxabl says it has raised over $230 million from over 50,000 investors.

But the plan wasn鈥檛 to stay private forever. Earlier this month, Boxabl a deal to go public on through a merger with publicly traded shell company FG Merger in a transaction that values the company at $3.5 billion.

A look at the numbers

It鈥檚 a large valuation for a company that, in a quarterly financial made this week, notes that 鈥渟ubstantial doubt about the company鈥檚 ability to continue as a going concern is probable.鈥�

It鈥檚 also large for a startup that posted revenue of just $402,000 in the first six months of 2025, (down from $708,000 a year earlier). Boxabl also posted a loss of around $41 million for the first half of this year, up from $34 million in the year-ago period, per the unaudited statement.

While those are strikingly low revenue numbers (and high losses) for any consumer-facing company on track for a public listing, what seems more noteworthy is the low tally of shipments of its prefab homes relative to initial demand.

Boxable says it has manufactured 744 Casitas to date and has completed deliveries of 285 Casitas in six states.

Between July 1, 2025, and Aug. 19, 2025, the company shipped one unit, according to the filing. Boxable said it is 鈥渋n the process of aligning our production levels to match the demand for our products.鈥�

Demand, but not supply

Should Boxabl manage to churn out prefab homes at advertised prices, which have gone up some over the years, it still has potential for plentiful demand. The company says it currently has deposits ranging from $100 to $5,000 from over 9,350 potential customers.

Of course, a deposit doesn鈥檛 guarantee someone will follow through on a purchase, even if the product does become available.

Nor, of course, does a SPAC merger agreement guarantee Boxabl a public listing. If the deal does not close by the end of the year, either Boxable or its SPAC sponsor may terminate the plan, per the merger agreement.

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